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RMP accident insights

What the EPA Risk Management Program accident histories show for chemical plants (NAICS 325): how the reported accident rate moved by year, how severe the reported accidents were, and how the rate differs by industry group. Every number on this page is copied from a CSV in the public ehs-chemical-peers repository, and a test fails if the page drifts from it.

Read the limits box before quoting any number. These are reported accident records, not a measure of how safe a plant is.

NOW

Three numbers

4.30to2.06accident records per 100 facility-years, 2010-2014 against 2020-2024 (398 and 180 records).
49.42%of the 868 reported accident records had at least one injury (95% interval 46.05 to 52.80).
8.30records per 100 facility-years in Petrochemicals (109 facilities), the highest of the 12 product-type groups with 30 or more facilities; the lowest is Paints & coatings at 0.42.
S1

Trend by year

Accident records per 100 facility-years at EPA-registered NAICS 325 chemical facilities, 2010 to 2024, with exact (Garwood) 95% Poisson intervals. The rate is 3.94 in 2010 and 1.40 in 2024. Poisson regression gives a rate ratio of 0.938 per year (0.923 to 0.953), a -6.18% change per year; Mann-Kendall p = 4.95e-05.

Accident records per 100 facility-years by year, with 95 percent Poisson intervalsLine chart from 2010 to 2024. The table below the chart lists every value.01234567under-observed2010: 3.94 per 100 facility-years (3.09 to 4.96)20102011: 4.43 per 100 facility-years (3.52 to 5.49)2012: 3.63 per 100 facility-years (2.81 to 4.61)20122013: 5.24 per 100 facility-years (4.25 to 6.39)2014: 4.24 per 100 facility-years (3.36 to 5.28)20142015: 3.41 per 100 facility-years (2.61 to 4.37)2016: 3.14 per 100 facility-years (2.38 to 4.07)20162017: 3.09 per 100 facility-years (2.33 to 4.01)2018: 3.38 per 100 facility-years (2.59 to 4.34)20182019: 2.99 per 100 facility-years (2.25 to 3.90)2020: 2.23 per 100 facility-years (1.59 to 3.03)20202021: 2.10 per 100 facility-years (1.48 to 2.89)2022: 1.95 per 100 facility-years (1.35 to 2.73)20222023: 2.61 per 100 facility-years (1.90 to 3.49)2024: 1.40 per 100 facility-years (0.90 to 2.08)2024per 100 facility-years
Shaded: the latest years, where the source analysis warns that records are under-observed (see the limits box). The Poisson intervals are too narrow because accidents cluster in few facilities (dispersion 1.73).
Table of values
YearFacility-yearsRecordsRate per 100 facility-years95% interval
20101,851733.943.09 to 4.96
20111,853824.433.52 to 5.49
20121,846673.632.81 to 4.61
20131,851975.244.25 to 6.39
20141,864794.243.36 to 5.28
20151,820623.412.61 to 4.37
20161,813573.142.38 to 4.07
20171,813563.092.33 to 4.01
20181,805613.382.59 to 4.34
20191,805542.992.25 to 3.90
20201,795402.231.59 to 3.03
20211,764372.101.48 to 2.89
20221,741341.951.35 to 2.73
20231,724452.611.90 to 3.49
20241,713241.400.90 to 2.08

Source: outputs/trend_by_year.csv, outputs/trend_tests.csv; write-up docs/trend.md.

S2

Severity shares

Share of the 868 reported accident records with each consequence, with exact Clopper-Pearson 95% intervals. This is a share of accidents that were reported, not a rate per plant or per year. 12 records (1.38%) reported a death and 40 (4.61%) an offsite evacuation.

Share of accident records with each consequenceDot chart with 95 percent intervals; the table below lists every value.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%Any injuryAny injury: 49.42% (95% interval 46.05 to 52.80)49.42%%Worker or responder injuryWorker or responder injury: 49.19% (95% interval 45.82 to 52.57)49.19%%Public (offsite) injuryPublic (offsite) injury: 0.23% (95% interval 0.03 to 0.83)0.23%%At least one deathAt least one death: 1.38% (95% interval 0.72 to 2.40)1.38%%Offsite evacuationOffsite evacuation: 4.61% (95% interval 3.31 to 6.22)4.61%%Sheltering in placeSheltering in place: 9.56% (95% interval 7.69 to 11.72)9.56%%Property damageProperty damage: 22.00% (95% interval 19.29 to 24.91)22.00%%
Table of values
ConsequenceRecords with itShare95% interval
Any injury429 of 86849.42%46.05 to 52.80
Worker or responder injury427 of 86849.19%45.82 to 52.57
Public (offsite) injury2 of 8680.23%0.03 to 0.83
At least one death12 of 8681.38%0.72 to 2.40
Offsite evacuation40 of 8684.61%3.31 to 6.22
Sheltering in place83 of 8689.56%7.69 to 11.72
Property damage191 of 86822.00%19.29 to 24.91

Source: outputs/severity_overall.csv; write-up docs/severity.md.

S3

Rate by industry

Accident records per 100 facility-years by product-type peer group within NAICS 325, with exact 95% Poisson intervals, highest first. Hollow marks are groups with fewer than 30 facilities; their intervals are wide. The highest group with at least 30 facilities is Petrochemicals at 8.30, the lowest Paints & coatings at 0.42.

Accident records per 100 facility-years by product-type groupDot chart with 95 percent intervals; the table below lists every value.051015Synthetic rubber (28 facilities)Synthetic rubber (28 facilities): 9.40 (95% interval 6.58 to 13.01)9.40Plastics resins (older code) (14 facilities)Plastics resins (older code) (14 facilities): 8.57 (95% interval 4.80 to 14.14)8.57Petrochemicals (109 facilities)Petrochemicals (109 facilities): 8.30 (95% interval 6.93 to 9.87)8.30Dyes & pigments (18 facilities)Dyes & pigments (18 facilities): 7.14 (95% interval 4.00 to 11.78)7.14Acids & inorganics (301 facilities)Acids & inorganics (301 facilities): 7.03 (95% interval 6.24 to 7.90)7.03Explosives (9 facilities)Explosives (9 facilities): 6.77 (95% interval 3.09 to 12.85)6.77Other basic organics (incl. formaldehyde) (401 facilities)Other basic organics (incl. formaldehyde) (401 facilities): 5.70 (95% interval 5.08 to 6.37)5.70Resins & plastics (261 facilities)Resins & plastics (261 facilities): 4.93 (95% interval 4.23 to 5.71)4.93Compounding & specialty (221 facilities)Compounding & specialty (221 facilities): 2.88 (95% interval 2.29 to 3.58)2.88Fertilizer & ag chemicals (415 facilities)Fertilizer & ag chemicals (415 facilities): 2.78 (95% interval 2.34 to 3.27)2.78Industrial gases (276 facilities)Industrial gases (276 facilities): 1.81 (95% interval 1.37 to 2.35)1.81Adhesives (42 facilities)Adhesives (42 facilities): 1.56 (95% interval 0.67 to 3.07)1.56Pharmaceuticals (41 facilities)Pharmaceuticals (41 facilities): 1.51 (95% interval 0.65 to 2.98)1.51Fibers (9 facilities)Fibers (9 facilities): 0.84 (95% interval 0.02 to 4.68)0.84Soaps, cleaners & personal care (95 facilities)Soaps, cleaners & personal care (95 facilities): 0.72 (95% interval 0.33 to 1.37)0.72Ethanol & biofuels (199 facilities)Ethanol & biofuels (199 facilities): 0.58 (95% interval 0.32 to 0.95)0.58Paints & coatings (61 facilities)Paints & coatings (61 facilities): 0.42 (95% interval 0.09 to 1.21)0.42
Table of values
GroupFacilitiesFacility-yearsRecordsRate per 100 facility-years95% interval
Synthetic rubber28383369.406.58 to 13.01
Plastics resins (older code)14175158.574.80 to 14.14
Petrochemicals1091,5421288.306.93 to 9.87
Dyes & pigments18210157.144.00 to 11.78
Acids & inorganics3014,0232837.036.24 to 7.90
Explosives913396.773.09 to 12.85
Other basic organics (incl. formaldehyde)4015,4223095.705.08 to 6.37
Resins & plastics2613,5721764.934.23 to 5.71
Compounding & specialty2212,810812.882.29 to 3.58
Fertilizer & ag chemicals4155,2211452.782.34 to 3.27
Industrial gases2763,094561.811.37 to 2.35
Adhesives4251381.560.67 to 3.07
Pharmaceuticals4152981.510.65 to 2.98
Fibers911910.840.02 to 4.68
Soaps, cleaners & personal care951,24390.720.33 to 1.37
Ethanol & biofuels1992,598150.580.32 to 0.95
Paints & coatings6172230.420.09 to 1.21

Source: outputs/accident_by_subsector.csv; write-up docs/insights.md.

!

What these numbers cannot tell you

Read these rates as counts of reported accident records, not as a measure of how safe a plant or an industry is. The sentences below are copied from the source write-ups.

  • Recent years are under-observed. An accident is on file only if a later RMP submission lists it within its five-year history. Facilities whose last submission was before an accident never show it, yet are counted as observed to 2024 if still marked active, or to their last submission year otherwise. This biases recent-year rates downward, and part or all of the decline, especially in 2022-2024, may come from it. The sensitivity set limits the problem for facilities with a 2024 or later submission, but it keeps only survivors still filing, which is itself selective, and it still shows a decline. Neither set removes the bias. docs/trend.md
  • RMP-covered facilities only. The records are for facilities that file an RMP and hold a regulated substance above its threshold. Accidents at other plants, or involving unlisted substances, are absent. docs/severity.md
  • No initiating-event field. No dollar-weighted damage analysis (damage is used only as zero or above zero), no cut by initiating event beyond the contributing-cause flags above (the data has no separate initiating-event field), no accident narratives, and no check against the current EPA RMP*Info database. docs/severity.md
  • Only reportable accidents are on file. Only accidents that meet EPA's five-year-history criteria (40 CFR 68.42) are on file: a listed substance released with at least one of deaths, injuries, significant property damage, or known offsite consequences such as evacuation, sheltering, or environmental damage. Because many records qualify through an injury, the injury share is high by construction. It must not be read as the chance that an RMP-covered release injures someone, and the data holds no minor releases. docs/severity.md
SRC

Sources